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Tuesday, Jul 01, 2025
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Philippine Stock Market Anticipates Sideways Trading Amid Geopolitical Tensions
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index shows modest gains as investors weigh risks from Middle East conflicts.
The Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEi) closed at 6,395.59 on Friday, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.29 percent.
Despite this positive showing, analysts predict that the market will experience sideways trading in the coming week as caution prevails among investors due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Jonathan Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., noted that the PSEi's recent performance highlights waning buying momentum influenced by escalated geopolitical risks.
He indicated that the index is likely to continue fluctuating within a range of 6,000 to 6,500 in the near term.
Cristina Ulang, head of research at First Metro Investment Corp., mentioned that profit-taking activities are expected as investors hedge against potential repercussions from the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, which has already resulted in rising oil prices.
Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial, emphasized that further escalation in the region could lead to increases in oil prices, complicating the Philippines' efforts to manage inflation, thereby potentially exerting downward pressure on the stock market.
Investors are also awaiting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)'s upcoming policy meeting, as indications of the central bank's stance on interest rates could influence market sentiment.
Tantiangco pointed out that while the interest rate decision is significant, investors will be particularly attentive to any clues regarding potential policy easing later in the year.
In addition to the BSP’s interest rate decision scheduled for June 19, Unicapital Securities' head of research, Wendy Estacio-Cruz, highlighted the market's anticipation of April cash remittances data, set for release on June 17.
Estacio-Cruz projected that the benchmark index would trade between 6,300 and 6,500 this week, expecting cautious engagement as the market approaches the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on June 18 and the BSP meeting on June 19. Alfred Benjamin Garcia, head of research at AP Securities, reiterated that trading dynamics will be heavily influenced by the decisions made by both central banks.
Despite this positive showing, analysts predict that the market will experience sideways trading in the coming week as caution prevails among investors due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Jonathan Ravelas, a senior adviser at Reyes Tacandong & Co., noted that the PSEi's recent performance highlights waning buying momentum influenced by escalated geopolitical risks.
He indicated that the index is likely to continue fluctuating within a range of 6,000 to 6,500 in the near term.
Cristina Ulang, head of research at First Metro Investment Corp., mentioned that profit-taking activities are expected as investors hedge against potential repercussions from the ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, which has already resulted in rising oil prices.
Japhet Tantiangco, research manager at Philstocks Financial, emphasized that further escalation in the region could lead to increases in oil prices, complicating the Philippines' efforts to manage inflation, thereby potentially exerting downward pressure on the stock market.
Investors are also awaiting the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP)'s upcoming policy meeting, as indications of the central bank's stance on interest rates could influence market sentiment.
Tantiangco pointed out that while the interest rate decision is significant, investors will be particularly attentive to any clues regarding potential policy easing later in the year.
In addition to the BSP’s interest rate decision scheduled for June 19, Unicapital Securities' head of research, Wendy Estacio-Cruz, highlighted the market's anticipation of April cash remittances data, set for release on June 17.
Estacio-Cruz projected that the benchmark index would trade between 6,300 and 6,500 this week, expecting cautious engagement as the market approaches the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting on June 18 and the BSP meeting on June 19. Alfred Benjamin Garcia, head of research at AP Securities, reiterated that trading dynamics will be heavily influenced by the decisions made by both central banks.
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