The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a reduction in the Philippines’ wheat imports for the market year commencing July 2025 and concluding in June 2026, as demand for animal feed appears to weaken.

According to the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS), the anticipated imports stand at 7.2 million metric tons (MT), marking a three percent decrease from the previous month’s estimate of 7.4 million MT.

Initially, the USDA had revised its forecast upward due to expectations of increased food and feed demand.

The Philippines does not have conducive conditions for wheat production and relies entirely on imports to satisfy its wheat requirements, importing both milling wheat for human consumption and feed wheat for livestock.

The USDA-FAS noted a likely reduction in demand for feed wheat as local feed manufacturers continue to favor feed corn for its favorable physical attributes and fattening qualities.

Feed wheat serves as an alternative ingredient when its pricing is advantageous compared to feed corn, or during supply shortages.

During the latter half of 2024, the price of imported feed wheat has been observed to be higher than that of corn by a margin ranging from $12.22 to $48.41 per MT. As global corn production is projected to increase, the cost of feed corn is expected to become more competitive in the market year 2025-2026.

With the current market year nearing its end, USDA forecasts a revised total of 6.8 million MT in wheat imports for the Philippines, a decrease from an earlier estimate of 7.2 million MT. This new estimate also reflects a decrease from the 6.9 million MT of wheat that the USDA estimated for import during the market year 2023-2024.

In the preceding market year, the primary source of wheat for the Philippines was the United States, followed by Australia, Brazil, and Canada.

The USDA-FAS anticipates that the US will maintain its status as the foremost supplier of wheat to the Philippines in the upcoming year.

The Philippines has emerged as the second-largest market for US wheat exports in 2024, importing a total of 2.7 million MT with a value of $735.71 million.

In conjunction with wheat imports, the USDA has upheld its forecast for rice imports in the Philippines to reach 5.5 million MT for the next year, attributing this projection to factors such as population growth, the resurgence of tourism, and the ongoing significance of rice as a staple food.

If realized, this would affirm the Philippines' position as the world’s largest rice importer for the fourth consecutive year.