Manila Times

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Thursday, Jul 17, 2025

Market Sentiment Influenced by BSP Rate Cut and Geopolitical Tensions

Investor outlook shaped by potential monetary easing and international trade developments.
Investor sentiment in the Philippines is expected to be influenced this week by several key factors, including a potential interest rate cut by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), overseas remittances from Filipino workers, ongoing US-China trade talks, and escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly following Israel's military actions towards Iran.

The Philippine market displayed positive movement last week, buoyed by optimism regarding the prospects of US-China relations and heightened expectations surrounding the BSP's upcoming policy meeting.

Despite this rise, the market could not surpass the 6,400 resistance level, signaling underlying concerns associated with emerging risks.

Research Manager Japhet Tantiangco of Philstocks Financial noted the market's undervaluation but emphasized that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East could impact economic stability and inflation management efforts in the Philippines.

He indicated that any escalation in conflicts, especially oil price hikes, could pose significant challenges ahead.

Investors are particularly attentive to the BSP's policy meeting, where indications of future policy easing might positively influence market sentiments.

Speculation exists that the BSP might signal a more accommodative approach in the latter part of the year, which could further energize investor confidence.

According to online brokerage 2TradeAsia.com, market volatility is anticipated to be driven by news cycles as the focus returns to the US-China trade negotiations.

Despite expectations that the White House may finalize a new trade stance with China by July, ongoing trade policy uncertainties continue to pose risks.

These uncertainties have a direct impact on corporate planning, supply chain management, and overall investment sentiment.

The brokerage advises that until clarity is achieved regarding the direction of US-China trade discussions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy strategies, investors should remain cautious and position themselves strategically to manage risk.

In terms of specific stock recommendations, COL Financial has highlighted Jollibee Food Corporation, noting that its recent acquisition of Norang Tongdak positions the company for growth in the competitive South Korean market.

This follows Jollibee's successful acquisition of Compose Coffee, which has contributed positively to its international segment's expansion.

Additionally, Unicapital Securities has recommended Universal Robina Corporation, citing the company's trajectory towards achieving a mid-single-digit bottom-line growth target for 2025, supported by strong performance in both the domestic and international consumer food sectors in the first quarter of the year.
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